A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
