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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It often acts as a form of apology. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the largest turnaround is handed the award. However, it creates an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or just the biggest shock.

But the latest race is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference winners falling away and recent underperformers improving together. During an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this turbulent and entertaining season, he's competing with several other exceptional candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to spin big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this is not a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. However he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a given following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an early hot start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still